APPLICATION OF THE NARX MODEL FOR FORECASTING WIND SPEED FOR WIND ENERGY GENERATION
Item
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Tipo do ITEM
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Artigo Ciêntifico
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Título do Artigo
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APPLICATION OF THE NARX MODEL FOR FORECASTING WIND SPEED FOR WIND ENERGY GENERATION
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Descrição
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The wind energy matrix has been gradually increasing in recent years and its importance for the
renewable energy industry is increasingly linked to benefits in relation to the environment. The
objective is to apply the NARX model to forecast wind speed in the short term and consequently
the generation of wind energy. In the materials and methods, the database of the SONDA project
(System of National Organization of Environmental Data) organized by INPE (National Institute
for Space Research) was used, in which it was decided to use the anemometric data of the
Brasília station - BRB, where data from February 2005 to March 2019 were used for validation
training and testing of the model developed. The results obtained were characterized by a better
performance for the short-term time horizon of 10 minutes up to 10 steps ahead, which helps to
provide the wind energy industry with greater reliability in energy delivery
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Abstract
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The wind energy matrix has been gradually increasing in recent years and its importance for the
renewable energy industry is increasingly linked to benefits in relation to the environment. The
objective is to apply the NARX model to forecast wind speed in the short term and consequently
the generation of wind energy. In the materials and methods, the database of the SONDA project
(System of National Organization of Environmental Data) organized by INPE (National Institute
for Space Research) was used, in which it was decided to use the anemometric data of the
Brasília station - BRB, where data from February 2005 to March 2019 were used for validation
training and testing of the model developed. The results obtained were characterized by a better
performance for the short-term time horizon of 10 minutes up to 10 steps ahead, which helps to
provide the wind energy industry with greater reliability in energy delivery
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Língua do arquivo
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inglês
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Data da Publicação
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Ano 2021
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Palavra-chave
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RNA
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NARX
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Forecasting model
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Wind speed
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Autores
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Ricardo Silva Parente
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David Barbosa de Alencar
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Paulo Oliveira Siqueira Junior
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Ítalo Rodrigo Soares Silva
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Jandecy Cabral Leite
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Local
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ITEGAM - Manaus, 2021
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Áreas de Conhecimento
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Otimização de Processos Industriais
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Turma
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Turma 1
